Despite Thin Biden Win in 2020, Arizona GOP Incumbent Rep. David Schweikert Faces Multiple Re-election Challenges

January 31, 2024

Among the seven congressional Republicans seeking reelection in districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020, Rep. David Schweikert of Arizona's 1st congressional district 1 would seem to be among the least-threatened, considering that Biden won the northeastern Phoenix suburban district by a razor thin 1.5 percent margin.

However, according to a Political Explorer analysis of proprietary voter data, Schweikert may face an uphill climb in his reelection bid, despite registered Republicans making up 38 percent of the roughly 525,000 registered voters and registered Democrats a significantly lower 29 percent. Independents account for the remaining 33 percent.

About 125,000 registered Republicans cast ballots in 2018 and 2020 vs. about 100,000 registered Democrats voting in both elections. However, among these "frequent voters," over half described themselves as "pro-choice," suggesting an advantage for Democratic candidates. Independents could tip the balance, with 75,000 registered independents also voting in both elections.

And despite enjoying the advantages of incumbency, Schweikert's margin of victory has been steadily diminishing. In the 2018 general election, the Republican secured 55 percent of the vote, dropping to 52 percent in 2020. In the most recent 2022 elections, he barely clinched reelection with a slim 50.4 percent of the vote, edging his Democratic opponent by a mere 3,000 votes out of 361,477 ballots cast.

In short, while Schweikert may face more obstacles than in his previous election, most numbers still favor a Republican candidate, even in a state that’s shown signs of trending purple in the last three election cycles.